Sunday, July 11, 2004

Why Today's Soaring Deficits donot matter in the short term but do in the long term

In the short term, a financial crisis because of national debt is more likely to happen today when there is flight of capital. That is foreign investors that own a large percentage of US Treasury bonds decide to sell them driving down the price of the dollar and causing inflation and destroying the economy by cutting our GDP by a large percentage. This can happen, one, if foreign investors see the US as an unsafe place politically and security vise in the short term or two if investors decide that the US is economically unsafe when compared to other places to invest. Now for the second thing to happen we would need to look at a foreign investor’s perspective on economically safe long term places in the world to invest. When it comes to this the two places would be the US or Europe. Europe suffers from an even greater downward economic pressure because of retiring populations and social security than the US. So the likelihood of capital flight to Europe is minimal. China is another place that one might contend as an economically good place to invest, but China is a new economy that has but a very small GDP when compared to both Europe and US. Until this changes, the likelihood that China is a better venue for foreign investments than the US can be discounted. Thus there are no other places where foreign investors can expect better, surer economic gains in the rest of the world than the US.
The second point of the US being a safe place in the short term is mainly a security problem and when compared to the rest of the world the US is probably a safer place or at least as safe as any other large industrialized economy. So we don't really need to worry about the collapse of the economy due to soaring deficits? No, not true because we have the long term to worry about.
What is a major concern, is that if the debt grows and becomes a large percentage of the GDP more than say 70% or 80% then we have a problem since financial capital needed for the growth of the economy as well as most of the taxes collected will be soaked up by the interest on these debts. This potentially could cause an economic collapse. Thus the main concern we should have is to make sure that the debt doesn't rise above 10% or 20% and never to the level as described above. We can do this by either increasing the size of our economy by increasing the GDP or by reducing the national debt by paying some of it back. Preferably both strategies should be employed so that we keep the faith in foreign investors or any investors that the US does prefer a long term strong fiscal policy. Thus we should always try to repay some of the debt come good times such as the 90's.

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Motion and Free Will

Motion and Free Will
Motion is important. Everything that we are is in some way or form related to this concept of motion. Whether it be blood moving through our vessels, or neurons firing in our brain, somewhere along the line motion takes place. So all our actions are related to motion because our actions are just a small part of the whole, since the whole as we just described is motion. So when we say actions we are, if we break it down, in the end talking about a whole bunch of motions. Free will is a category of action or actions that we perform. Thus obviously, free will is also motion.
On a completely different note…Motion and Speed of light
Motion is related to distance because it measures it. Distance is related to speed because distance/time equals speed. Thus Motion is related to speed. Speed is measured by us using different techniques including the measurements we base on the speed of the wave/particle motion of the constituents of the electromagnetic spectrum. The constituents of the electro-magnetic spectrum all have a definitive speed, the speed of light. This is a constant speed at which all members of the electro-magnetic spectrum travel from point a to point b wherever point a and point b are. This is only true when given that there is distance between them ( |a-b|>0 ). This constant speed is the fastest we have ever verifiably measured anything travel.1 Since we are motion and since motion is related to speed thus we are limited by this speed of light. Thus our motion freezes as we approach the speed of light. That is to say that we can’t move any faster than the speed of light so if we were traveling at the speed of light as we kept getting closer and closer to this definitive barrier we would go slower and slower until we would stop moving all together. Since motion is what we are this would apply to everything we are including thoughts, free will and all.
So what are we and why is there no free will?
We are essentially a system of motion and energy transfers into motion, ie the human body is. Zoom out a bit more and we are on a planet which can also be broken down into a system of energy transfer of energy and motion. While it would be complex we could presumably describe motion and energy transfers in a well defined system very easily through a single or even a combination of equations. Zoom out more and more and soon we see that at every level we can still be broken down into a series of energy transfers and motions. Even if there isn’t any end to all the zooming out we can do, we can definitely take a limit of the function that describes the ever zooming out systems and thus a limit to the function or functions that describe each successive zoomed out system. Now at this time consider that mathematically different functions can usually be combined with limits and algebra and usually confined within a single function. Thus it makes sense to expect a single definitive equation as n approaches infinite zooming in, that describes the energy transfers of all that we are. Thus this function then governs all that we are and all that we will ever be. Thus we can never independently create motion ie separate ourselves from all the energy transfers and motions around us. So we have no free will.
Well that’s just great but, pardon ma French, what the fuck are you trying to say?
That we have no free will. However, I would still argue that our lack of a free will has nothing to do with our zoomed in perception of the world we see around us. In the perception of the world we see ie the motion and energy transfers that we are most directly affected by in our plane of immediate existence both in terms of time and space, we still have no idea about all the energy transfers that affect us beyond our immediate time and space and we probably never will no matter what the astronomers/physicists tell you.2 Thus we are like a ball inside a billiard ball table. While we might be able to see all the energy and motion right next to us inside the table, we have no control over the additional amounts of energy and space coming from outside the table. To us these motions/energy are as random as if we were a ball being relentlessly chased by the poking stick of a billiards player. Thus within our constraints of the table we encounter “randomness” which enables us again to “think” that we have some sort of free will. Thus just as it would be fruitless for a ball to care less from where next it be poked, we can care less about having absolute free will.
1 Notwithstanding the junk experiments on quantum particles. No repeatedly verifiable experiment has proved that anything has traveled beyond the speed of light. Experiments portraying quantum particles are controversial since in order to be able to correctly measure such particles we have to use tools that measure using the speed of light. If objects could travel that fast then an object would actually have traveled to the future presumably been from point a to point b even before it left.
2 Physicists/astronomers make such great claims because they think that somehow the big bang is the operable limits of the Universe. It is plainly an assumption that they are forced to make cause they can only measure what they see around them and not what they can’t. While it is a good assumption, it is not infallible. Unless we can be sure that the big bang is the limit of our zoomed out vision we can’t presume to know for sure that the universal function that we might have traced back and measured until then is accurate.